The Iranian regime has collapsed. The Iranian foreign minister has just told Al Jazeera English that the government no longer has real control over the Revolutionary Guard. He said: what happened in Oman was not our choice. We had already asked our armed forces to be cautious about the targets they select. Our military units have, in reality, become somewhat independent and isolated; they are now acting according to general instructions that were given to them in advance.
Congratulations, then, to all the Torah fanatics in Israel, the biblical zealots in the United States, and the ruling families in the Gulf who thought their strategy of “strategic deception” — pretending to oppose the war while quietly aligning with it — would shield them. Trump has stripped away the performance. He has placed them in front of the cannon. And if this war continues for more than a week, he may very well leave them, alongside Israel, to “finish the mission,” the way Ukraine and Europe have been trying to finish theirs for four years now.
The collapse of the Iranian regime will not be a local event. It will produce chaos across the entire region. It may take a decade for a new regime to consolidate power in Iran, and even then, what emerges could force a new social contract, or simply a new configuration of domination.
What we are seeing is a structural reordering of the region and its people. A new world, a new monsters are born with Israel implanted not only as a military strike force but as a functional power tasked with organizing the region’s security and economic architecture. This is a “far-right” fantasy function within an imperial division of labor. Israel operates as an advanced outpost: a highly militarized economy, fully integrated into global capitalism, deeply embedded in its interests, serves the ruling class by throughing jews imigranats into wars that will never bring peace. But more missiles and drones and sleepless nights for children in shelters.
Yet, Zionist expansion does have limits. Every expansion carries a cost. A permanent war economy, massive military expenditure, prolonged conflict, economic stagnation inside Israel, and increasing dependence on American support, all of this can generate internal tensions and deepen Israel’s own structural crises. Or a miracle might happen, and the American people will wake up and decide not to spend their tax money to turn Torah fanatics in Israel into reality. But even if we reached the moment where the cost outweighs the return, and the cracks begin to appear.. even if we reached this moment next week or next year, those cracks will mean nothing to us if there are no social forces with a new imagination ready to engage with them.
Now to Iran. Its collapse will not automatically bring liberation. Its survival will not automatically produce a popular victory. If it collapses, we will likely see the reconstruction of a regime more integrated into the global market, less ideological perhaps, but not necessarily less repressive. If it endures, society will be pushed toward further securitization, and the economy will bear the burden of extended militarization. In neither scenario is the working class likely to emerge overnight as a coherent political actor. Four decades of eroded unions, sectarianized public life, and the gradual conversion of citizens into indebted individuals preoccupied with survival have left deep marks. The present impoverishment cannot be attributed solely to the Iranian state. Sanctions imposed by external powers were borne largely by ordinary Iranians, even as ruling elites remained tied to global markets and continued to accumulate wealth.
The more catastrophic reality is that most states in the region function as strategic extensions of the United States. Gulf regimes such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE are not temporary allies; they are organically integrated into the American financial-security architecture. This is not an indirect alliance. It is structural integration. And many of us (In USA, Europe, North Africa) are economically tied to this order through mony transfer by worke or family members, labor migration, consumption patterns, and investment flows.
The problem is that progressive and socialist forces are at one of their weakest moments in modern history, not only in Iran, but across the world. The militarization of the economy alongside mass impoverishment, the fragility of the working classes, and expanding indebtedness. These are not abstractions. They are material conditions that demand strategic thinking at the level of organization and discourse, we need to..
We are in a slow moment of reconstruction. What is needed is a clear class-based political line against ruling elites, and reactionary narratives (Biblical and Islamic ones). We must connect our everyday material interests to the political and geopolitical structures that shape them. We must critique the organic relationship between internal authoritarianism, its Gulf allies, and its creditors, and expose the contradictions within that alliance.
An anti-Zionist discourse is necessary, but it must be grounded in class interests, not in the interests of ruling bourgeoisies, and feudal rulers in gulf.
Regimes manage conflicts according to their own survival, not according to the liberation of peoples. The red rose in the white garden is in redefining the conflict socially: understanding that Zionism is not only an occupation or nationalist expansion, but also a specific form of organizing capitalism in the region. Confronting it is not only a military question; it is social and economic. Otherwise, we are left consuming empty nationalist slogans or regressive narratives led by political Islam.
This requires forces capable of linking national liberation to the question of class struggle. Without that link, conflict becomes emotional mobilization, noise without transformation… as we already have been seeing in the last two years of Gaza genocide, and the political discourse that it produced so far
Whimpering and crying over the spilled milk is politically sterile in such times. What is required is an inquiry into the relations of force, into the slow movement of social energies beneath events
What stands before us is not a dramatic climax. It is a long, hostile process of rebuilding ourselves.
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